ChatGPT’s BTC Forecast

I provided ChatGPT high-level technical analysis & economic metrics to see what its BTC ’24 Halving Cycle forecasts are.

8 min readAug 24, 2024

What’s up y’all. It’s been a minute.

Apologies for the year-long departure, as I have been working on Umoja, a DeFi protocol creating low-risk, high-yield structured digital assets, writing an open-source book on tokenomics, “Tokédex,” and starting a YouTube channel to make my research a bit more engaging (don’t laugh at how few subs I have, jeez lol).

Alas, the researcher in me has become restless as I continue to read bullshit posted on crypto twitter from VCs and KOLs that don’t know shit.

So, let’s get a soft start back into the swing of things, before we get into the real analysis — like how the institutionalization of ETH as a financial product on Wall Street could spell the end for the network’s decentralization. Or how most L2s are completely centralized. You know — that good shit.

Now I know half of y’all only want to read shit that will get you a bag. So, in this episode, we’re going to do some pre-ATH BTC forecasting for the 2024 Halving Cycle (i.e. When is BTC going to pump for the love of God-analysis).

Though this isn’t financial advice in the slightest, it is based on market data and base-level technical analysis.

The TLDR on BTC’s Halving Cycle

The Bitcoin halving cycle occurs approximately every four years, reducing the reward for mining new blocks by 50%. This event is significant because it decreases the rate at which new BTC is created, leading to a reduction in supply over time.

Historically, each halving has been followed by the following market trends:

Halving Bull Run: Cycle ATH (all-time-high) ~500 Days After Halving
Halving Bear Market: Occurs for ~365 Days Immediately After Cycle’s ATH, ending the Bull Run
Bear Market Bottom: Bear Market Takes Market Down ~80% from Bull Market ATH.
Post Bear Market: Occurs for ~730 Days, with increased volatility and, at times, uptrend market cycles before the next halving

The BTC Cycle is the fundamental basis for all cryptocurrency technical trading analysis. All cryptocurrency markets follow BTC’s lead.

What does ChatGPT think?

So, without further ado, let’s ask what ChatGPT thinks about all this so we can *hopefully make a bag this cycle 🙄.

Prompt #1: BTC ’24 Cycle Forecasting

To start, I prompted ChatGPT to perform some statistical pattern analysis on high-level BTC Halving and US economic metrics to establish its own forecast on the BTC ’24 Halving Cycle, providing it the following prompt (prompt in italics w/ underlying data provided):

Prompt: The following statistics are measurements from each Bitcoin halving period. Please (1) identify statistical patterns between halving periods, and (2) forecast how the 2024 BTC Halving statistics should look like given what we know:

2012 Halving
Pre-Halving Bull Run Trend Time = 305 Days
Halving Bull Run Trend Time = 365 Days
All Time High From Halving Start Price = 10,300%
Bear Market Trend Time = 638 days
Bottom From Halving Start Price = 1,300%
Bull Run Price Reduction After Bear Market = -86.56%
Pre-Halving Fed Rate (2012): The Federal Funds Rate was near 0% following the 2008 financial crisis and remained at this low level through quantitative easing measures.
Post-Halving Fed Rate (2012–2016): The rate stayed at 0–0.25% until December 2015 when the Fed raised it by 0.25% to 0.25–0.50%

2016 Halving
Pre-Halving Bull Run Trend Time = 304 Days
Halving Bull Run Trend Time = 518 Days
All Time High From Halving Start Price = 3,149%
Bear Market Trend Time = 365 days
Bottom From Halving Start Price = 391%
Bull Run Price Reduction After Bear Market = -83.9%
Pre-Halving Fed Rate: The rate was at 0.25–0.50%.
Post-Halving Fed Rate (2016–2020): The Fed gradually raised rates in several increments, reaching 2.25–2.50% by December 2018. However, in 2019, rates were cut back to 1.50–1.75% by the end of the year.

2020 Halving

Pre-Halving Bull Run Trend Time = 0 Days
Halving Bull Run Trend Time = 549 Days
All Time High From Halving Start Price = 842%
Bear Market Trend Time = 365 days
Bottom From Halving Start Price = 83.9%
Bull Run Price Reduction After Bear Market = -77.43%
Pre-Halving Fed Rate: The rate was at 1.50–1.75% until March 2020, when it was slashed to 0–0.25% due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Post-Halving Fed Rate (2020–2024): The Fed maintained the 0–0.25% rate until March 2022, when it began raising rates aggressively due to inflation concerns. By 2023, the rate reached 5.25–5.50%.

2024 Halving (So Far)

Pre-Halving Bull Run Trend Time = 213 Days
Halving Bull Run Trend Time = Unknown (Forecast Needed)
All Time High From Halving Start Price = Unknown (Forecast Needed)
Bear Market Trend Time = Unknown (Forecast Needed)
Bottom From Halving Start Price = Unknown (Forecast Needed)
Bull Run Price Reduction After Bear Market = Unknown (Forecast Needed)
Pre-Halving Fed Rate: The rate remains elevated at 5.25–5.50% as of August 2024, with no significant cuts expected before the halving.
Post-Halving Fed Rate (2020–2024): Cuts are expected in September Fed. Reserve Board meeting.

Prompt #1 Answer: Par w/ Pro-Trader Analysis

ChatGPT did relatively well with identifying known BTC-halving cycle patterns long known to crypto pro-traders, identifying the following patterns:

Identified Statistical Patterns:
Pre-Halving Bull Run Trend Time: Consistent trend durations of around 300 days before 2012 and 2016 halvings. 2020 had no significant pre-halving run.
Halving Bull Run Trend Time: Increased trend duration over the halving periods — 365 days (2012), 518 days (2016), and 549 days (2020).
All-Time High from Halving Start Price: Declining returns from 10,300% (2012) to 842% (2020).
Bear Market Duration: Shortened from 638 days (2012) to 365 days (2016 and 2020).
Bull Run Price Reduction After Bear Market: Decreasing from -86.56% (2012) to -77.43% (2020).

Its BTC ’24 Halving forecast are, for the most part, in-line with pro-trader analysis. However, estimating that the bear-market bottom will only be 50–60% from the halving start would be off-trend to every cycle before 2024.

2024 BTC Halving Forecast:
Pre-Halving Bull Run Trend Time: Likely closer to 300 days.
Halving Bull Run Trend Time: Likely to be between 500–600 days, given the increasing trend durations in previous cycles.
All-Time High from Halving Start Price: Expected to continue the trend of lower returns, potentially around 500–600%.
Bear Market Trend Time: Likely 365 days, consistent with the last two cycles.
Bottom from Halving Start Price: Expected to be around 50–60% of the halving start price.
Bull Run Price Reduction After Bear Market: Potentially further reduced to around -70% or lower, following the downward trend in post-bull market corrections.
Given the expected interest rate cuts post-halving and historical patterns, the 2024 halving could see a more moderate bull run and bear market compared to previous cycles.

Prompt #2: BTC ’24 Uptrend Timing Forecast

Next, I wanted to understand when ChatGPT thinks the greatest % uptrend period will occur during BTC’s forecasted bull run in the ’24 cycle (prompt in italics w/ underlying data provided):

Prompt: Provided that the U.S. has (1) recently seen the largest jobs report revision since 2007, revising March 2024 job losses by 880k, and (2) the CME FedWatch tool has 76% market confidence that there will be a 500 to 525 bps rate reduction and 24% market confidence of a 475 to 500 bps rate reduction in the upcoming September 2024 Fed. Board meeting, and (3) the CPI inflation rate is at 2.89, when do you forecast to see the largest uptrend in BTC’s price over the corse of the 2024 BTC Halving, given that it has already been 4 months into the cycle with either sideways market action and downtrends (i.e. current price is now $64.3k per BTC after the Jackson Hole speech the fed chair gave, basically saying that he is going to cut rates in the next meeting)?

Prompt #2 Answer: 6–12 Months Into the Cycle

This is where ChatGPT got lazy. I feel as if this happens every 2nd to 3rd prompt where the limited-AI instance our soon-to-be OpenAI overlords give us tells us to fuck off and ask Claude some shit. All of this pro-traders have BEEN KNOWN.

Given the current economic environment, the largest uptrend in BTC’s price during the 2024 halving cycle is likely to occur following the anticipated rate cuts in September 2024. Here’s why:
Rate Cuts: The market anticipates a significant reduction in interest rates, which historically boosts asset prices, including BTC, as investors seek higher returns.
CPI Inflation: With inflation at 2.89%, the Fed’s rate cuts could further stimulate demand for BTC as an inflation hedge.
Historical Trends: Previous halvings have shown significant BTC price increases post-halving, typically aligning with monetary easing.
Forecast: The largest uptrend could begin shortly after the rate cuts in September, with sustained upward momentum potentially lasting 6–12 months into the cycle, especially as market confidence builds around the halving’s supply impact and the easing monetary policy.

Prompt #3: BTC ’24 ATH Price Prediction

Of course, the longer I chatted with ChatGPT, the more my all-time-high (ATH) greed & degen alter-ego started to set in. “Damn it! Wen BTC go up?! Don’t act like you don’t know why I’m asking all these damn questions and got you this data in the first place!”

Prompt: What is your ATH price prediction for the BTC ’24 Halving cycle based on all the data I have provided you?

Prompt #3 Answer:

Interestingly, ChatGPT’s forecast is in line with many pro-traders, as well as institutions like Ark21 and Standard Chartered. Of course, online media could, and likely is, biasing its answer. It’s also likely that I have an implicit bias to accept the highest ATH it gives me lol.

Based on the data you’ve provided:
Economic Factors: Significant rate cuts expected, combined with a recent downward revision in jobs and moderate inflation, suggest an environment conducive to risk assets like BTC.
Historical Patterns: Past halving cycles show diminishing returns, with each cycle producing a lower all-time high (ATH) in percentage terms.
Current Market Conditions: Given the 2024 halving cycle, a more moderate but still strong rally can be expected.
ATH Prediction:
I would estimate the ATH for BTC during the 2024 halving cycle to be in the range of $150,000 to $200,000. This considers the impact of monetary easing, historical halving trends, and the current macroeconomic environment. The rally could gain momentum following rate cuts and potentially peak 12–18 months post-halving.

The TLDR:

So there you have it. Quite possibly the laziest, and most intriguing research blog that you’ve read this week. It will only get better from here — I promise lol. Here’s your ChatGPT BTC ’24 Cycle Forecast:

Pre-Halving Bull Run Trend Time: ~300 days.
Halving Bull Run Trend Time: 500–600 days.
Bull-Run Start Time: September — October? (6–12 Months in cycle).
All-Time High from Halving Start Price: 500–600% ($150k to $200k).
Bear Market Trend Time: ~365 days.
Bottom from Halving Start Price: ~50–60% of the halving start price.
Bull Run Price Reduction After Bear Market: ~-70% or lower.